All too often, forward-thinking people are dismissed as boring, pathologically fearful, or timewasters who obsess over planning for the improbable. Yet the major crises shaking our world today — whether geopolitical, humanitarian or economic — reveal a staggering lack of preparedness, even a culpable naivety, in the face of scenarios that, for the most part, could have been foreseen.
Ironically, in our daily lives, we all know how to plan, at least in the short term. Who, unless they were irrational, would venture into the mountains in bad weather without the proper equipment? Who, faced with a blocked neighbourhood, would not instinctively look for an alternative route to avoid the traffic jams?
So why does this clear-sightedness desert us when faced with challenges that are more distant, but potentially far more dramatic?
Anticipating means equipping oneself to weather the storm with calm and confidence, backed by solid foundations already in place. It is during periods of calm, when we can take a step back, that we must assess scenarios and implement action plans. The more preparation is done ‘in fair weather’, the more controlled the journey through the crisis will be.
In the business world, it is the responsibility of leaders at all levels to imagine the worst-case scenario, assess the risks and minimise them, if they cannot be eliminated entirely. Entrepreneurship means accepting risk, but one must also know how to assess it. It involves devising crisis scenarios, preparing countermeasures and discussing them openly with senior management. You don’t take out fire insurance when the house is already ablaze!
My experience within a large company that has weathered major crises has confirmed this belief: being prepared for any eventuality is the only way to act with composure when the time comes. This approach sometimes involves simple steps:
• Provide alternatives: Present two or three options to your superiors, even if only one was requested.
• Maintain some flexibility: Do not reveal all your cards during a presentation; management will inevitably ask ‘off script’ questions.
• Prepare for the dialogue: Anticipate decision-makers’ questions and prepare appropriate answers.
• Observe and analyse: Scrutinise partners’ reactions during an announcement; these subtle signals are often revealing.
• Secure the operational aspects: Put the necessary technical or logistical arrangements in place well in advance of a critical event.
• Consider the unthinkable: Study the consequences of extreme scenarios and define priority measures.
• Anticipate internal tensions: Be prepared in case political support is lacking on an issue you need to defend.
These exercises may seem simplistic, but they constitute a genuine mental workout. They develop the cognitive flexibility needed to react with agility in unforeseen circumstances.
Admittedly, anticipation lacks glamour, and one must guard against analysis paralysis, which would stifle all spontaneity. However, it remains the best tool for tackling contemporary challenges with the composure essential to decision-making.
Enjoy reading and good luck with your preparations.